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项涛, 董响红, 郭超, 李钟杰. 基于随机森林模型预测气候变化对黄颡鱼适生区的影响[J]. 水生生物学报, 2019, 43(6): 1262-1270. DOI: 10.7541/2019.150
引用本文: 项涛, 董响红, 郭超, 李钟杰. 基于随机森林模型预测气候变化对黄颡鱼适生区的影响[J]. 水生生物学报, 2019, 43(6): 1262-1270. DOI: 10.7541/2019.150
XIANG Tao, DONG Xiang-Hong, GUO Chao, LI Zhong-Jie. THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PELTEOBAGRUS FULVIDRACO BY RANDOM FOREST MODEL[J]. ACTA HYDROBIOLOGICA SINICA, 2019, 43(6): 1262-1270. DOI: 10.7541/2019.150
Citation: XIANG Tao, DONG Xiang-Hong, GUO Chao, LI Zhong-Jie. THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PELTEOBAGRUS FULVIDRACO BY RANDOM FOREST MODEL[J]. ACTA HYDROBIOLOGICA SINICA, 2019, 43(6): 1262-1270. DOI: 10.7541/2019.150

基于随机森林模型预测气候变化对黄颡鱼适生区的影响

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PELTEOBAGRUS FULVIDRACO BY RANDOM FOREST MODEL

  • 摘要: 作为对温度等相关环境条件要求较高的温水性鱼类, 全球气候变化引起栖息水域环境的改变可能会对黄颡鱼(Pelteobagrus fulvidraco)自然资源的分布产生影响。研究基于黄颡鱼物种分布信息、WorldClim气候数据(BCC-CSM1-1、CCSM4和MRI-CGCM3气候变化模型以及RCP2.6和RCP8.5温室气体排放情景)与集成学习算法随机森林(Random forest)对黄颡鱼当前、2050s和2070s潜在栖息地进行预测。所研究结果表明: (1)预测模型的Area Under the Curve (AUC)高达0.971, 指示模型的泛化能力较好, 结果可靠性较高; (2)结点纯度(Node purity)评判表明平均温度日较差和最暖季度降水量是预测黄颡鱼潜在分布的最重要环境因子; (3)在未来气候变化条件下, 黄颡鱼的栖息地中心逐渐脱离我国的东部和中部等地并北移, 且其高适生区面积逐渐减少。就黄颡鱼潜在栖息地以及影响其分布的主要生态条件进行相关研究, 对于黄颡鱼种质资源保护区的划分、渔业管理和潜在的生物入侵防控具有现实意义, 并可为东亚地区其他淡水鱼类应对气候变化的响应提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: As a warm-water species, changes of aquatic environment caused by global climate change could affect the distribution of Pelteobagrus fulvidraco natural resources. To investigate this (the distribution of this species in current, 2050s, and 2070s), three general circulation models (BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3), two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and random forest, an ensemble modeling, were used based on the distribution information of this species. The results indicated that the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the prediction model reached 0.971, indicating a good generalization and great reliability; The mean temperature of wettest quarter and max temperature of warmest month were the most important environmental factors to predict the distribution of P. fulvidraco evaluated by node purity; The main habitat of P. fulvidraco would gradually depart from the eastern and middle areas in China and expand to the north, and the area of most suitable habitat would gradually decrease under the future climate change conditions. Research on the distribution of P. fulvidraco and the main ecological conditions affecting its distribution has the practical significance to delineation of germplasm reserves of P. fulvidraco, fishery management, and prevention and control for potential biological invasion, as well as provide a reference basis for the response of other freshwater fishes in East Asia to climate change.

     

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