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    江苏近海秋季棘头梅童鱼资源时空分布变动及其环境驱动因素

    SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATIONS IN THE AUTUMN RESOURCE OF COLLICHTHYS LUCIDUS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF JIANGSU AND THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS

    • 摘要: 为明确近海鱼类资源时空分布及其环境驱动机制, 基于2021—2023年秋季江苏近海底拖网调查数据与多源遥感环境数据, 本文采用广义加性模型(GAM)和随机森林模型(RF), 分析盛渔期(秋季)棘头梅童鱼(Collichthys lucidus)资源的时空分布特征及其与海洋环境因子的关系, 并对2018—2023年棘头梅童鱼秋季适宜生境进行重构。结果表明, 棘头梅童鱼资源在资源重量和资源尾数等指标上均呈现显著年际波动, 整体表现为“2021年高值——2022年下降——2023年回升”的变化特征, 其空间高值区主要稳定分布于长江口及江苏中南部近岸浅水海域。不同模型对比显示, 资源尾数指数对环境变化响应最为稳定, GAM表现出更适合后续环境响应解析的综合优势。水深、海表温度、盐度、经向流速、纬向流速和涡动能是影响棘头梅童鱼秋季分布的关键环境因子。栖息地重构结果显示, 其资源分布仍以近岸水域为核心。研究结果可为近海渔业资源评估与空间化管理提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Identifying the spatiotemporal distribution of coastal fish resources and their environmental associations is essential under the combined effects of climate change and intensified human activities. Based on bottom trawl survey data collected in autumn from 2021 to 2023 and multi-source satellite-derived environmental data, this study used generalized additive models (GAMs) and random forest (RF) models to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of Collichthys lucidus in the coastal waters of Jiangsu, China, and its relationships with major marine environmental factors, and to reconstruct its suitable habitat distribution during autumn from 2018 to 2023. The results showed that both resource biomass and resource abundance exhibited pronounced interannual variability, characterized by high values in 2021, a marked decline in 2022, and recovery in 2023. High-value areas were consistently concentrated in the Yangtze River estuary and the shallow nearshore waters of central and southern Jiangsu. Model comparison indicated that the resource abundance index provided a more stable representation of environmental responses. After considering predictive performance, response-variable suitability, and the need for ecological interpretation, GAM was selected as the working model for autumn habitat reconstruction. Water depth, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, meridional current velocity, zonal current velocity, and eddy kinetic energy were identified as the major environmental factors influencing the autumn distribution of C. lucidus. Habitat reconstruction suggested that its distribution remained concentrated in nearshore waters. These findings provide scientific support for coastal fishery resource assessment and spatially explicit management.

       

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