基于随机森林的全氟辛酸水生动物生物积累因子预测模型

PREDICTION MODEL FOR BIOACCUMULATION FACTOR OF PERFLUOROOCTANOIC ACID IN AQUATIC ANIMALS BASED ON RANDOM FOREST

  • 摘要: 为了定量预测全氟辛酸(Perfluorooctanoic acid, PFOA)在水生动物体内的生物积累行为, 并为水环境中新污染物的生态风险评估与水产品安全管理提供技术手段, 本研究通过归纳整理现有数据, 构建了基于随机森林算法的PFOA水生动物生物积累因子预测模型。研究将水体PFOA浓度、水温、盐度、pH、溶解氧及物种蛋白质比例等条件作为输入变量, 生物积累因子作为响应变量, 并对生物积累因子的非线性变化进行建模。模型在训练集与测试集均具有良好的预测精度与泛化能力。此外, 经过模型分析, 水体PFOA浓度和生物体蛋白质比例对PFOA水生动物生物积累因子具有较高的相对贡献。本研究为水生动物中PFOA生物积累行为的定量预测和基于水生动物的食品安全风险评估提供了一种便捷、准确的技术手段。

     

    Abstract: To quantitatively predict the bioaccumulation behavior of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) in aquatic animals and provide a technical tool for the ecological risk assessment of emerging contaminants in aquatic environments and the safety management of aquatic products, this study developed a prediction model for the bioaccumulation factor of PFOA in aquatic animals using a Random Forest algorithm based on existing data. Waterborne PFOA concentration, water temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, and species protein content were used as input variables, with BAF as the response variable, to characterize the nonlinear variation in bioaccumulation. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy and strong generalization performance across both the training and testing datasets. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that waterborne PFOA concentration and organism protein content were the most influential factors contributing to the BAF of PFOA in aquatic animals. Overall, this study provides a convenient and reliable tool for quantitative predicting the bioaccumulation behavior of PFOA in aquatic animals and for supporting food-related health risk assessments based on the consumption of aquatic animals.

     

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