THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PELTEOBAGRUS FULVIDRACO BY RANDOM FOREST MODEL

As a warm-water species, changes of aquatic environment caused by global climate change could affect the distribution of Pelteobagrus fulvidraco natural resources. To investigate this (the distribution of this species in current, 2050s, and 2070s), three general circulation models (BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3), two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and random forest, an ensemble modeling, were used based on the distribution information of this species. The results indicated that the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the prediction model reached 0.971, indicating a good generalization and great reliability; The mean temperature of wettest quarter and max temperature of warmest month were the most important environmental factors to predict the distribution of P. fulvidraco evaluated by node purity; The main habitat of P. fulvidraco would gradually depart from the eastern and middle areas in China and expand to the north, and the area of most suitable habitat would gradually decrease under the future climate change conditions. Research on the distribution of P. fulvidraco and the main ecological conditions affecting its distribution has the practical significance to delineation of germplasm reserves of P. fulvidraco, fishery management, and prevention and control for potential biological invasion, as well as provide a reference basis for the response of other freshwater fishes in East Asia to climate change.